Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”