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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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